Lockout Sweepstakes

 

 

Well the NHL lockout is almost three months in and even though it’s going to mediation, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be resolved anytime soon.  A few weeks ago, I joked about a few of the reasons that the lockout is good for the Wild.  Today I’m actually going to illustrate why one of those is starting to look pretty appealing.

The 2013 draft is shaping up to be one of the best in the last decade.  Not only is it a relatively deep class, but it has incredible top end talent.  Nathan MacKinnon has drawn comparisons to Sidney Crosby in his draft year.  He has incredible speed, dazzling hands, and a rocket of a shot.  He will make an immediate impact on the club that drafts him.  Seth Jones is a once-in-a-decade defenseman that is sure to be the next franchise blue liner.  He has a rare combination of size, skill, and intelligence that has scouts drooling over him.  Throw in Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Drouin, and Sean Monahan and you have five players that might as well keep their draft day jerseys on because they’ll be in the big league from the get-go. 

So how exactly do they determine draft order after a lockout?  Well, after the 04-05 lockout the draft order was decided by a lottery.  Teams could have a maximum of three balls in the lottery and a minimum of one.  Teams lost a ball for every time they had been to the playoffs the previous three seasons or had a first overall pick the previous three seasons.  If that’s the case this year, the breakdown will go like this.

3 Balls (7 teams)
Dallas
Calgary
Winnipeg
Toronto
Minnesota
Columbus
Carolina

2 Balls (6 teams)
New York Islanders
Florida
Tampa Bay
St. Louis
Colorado
Anaheim

1 Ball (17 teams)
Edmonton
Washington
Philadelphia
New York Rangers
Boston
New Jersey
Buffalo
Ottawa
Vancouver
Phoenix
Nashville
Detroit
Chicago
San Jose
Los Angeles
Montreal
Pittsburgh

This would mean there are fifty balls total in the lottery.  That gives the 3-ball teams a 6% chance at the top pick, the 2-ball teams a 4% chance, and the one ball teams a 2% chance.  Like I said before, this class has five (or more) fantastic picks so we wanted to see what the Wild’s odds were of getting a top five pick.  I had our volunteer statisticians (WMS teachers Jeff Winslow and Aaron Finders) figure out the range of odds.  There isn’t an exact percentage because if teams with one or two balls get drawn first the odds don’t increase as much as if a team with three balls is drawn.  Therefore, they computed a range of odds given various scenarios.  The probable range of a top five pick for the Wild is 6-8% with a best case scenario of 10%. 

One last thing to ponder is if the league decides to change the lottery system to prohibit top teams from having any chance of a top pick.  Bloggers, beat writers, and fans have all discussed the chance of the league drawing for the top seven picks, middle six picks, and bottom seventeen picks separately.  If this was the case, this would be a jackpot for those seven teams.

In closing, it is still too early to say that there won’t be an NHL season.  However, you can see just how lucky the Wild could get if this were to happen.  If the Wild were to add McKinnon or Jones (or even Drouin, Bartok, or Monahan) to their current crop of prospects and summer free agent signings, the State of Hockey could see a Stanley Cup contender as early as next season!

It's the "Dub's" turn this time

Last summer, the NCAA fans rejoiced and the CHL fans cringed when the Canadian junior league finally took a stand against the Windsor Spitfires for breaking the player-benefit code (more or less offering money they are not allowed to in order to have players bail out on their college commitments and opt to play for them).  Well back then I said I didn't think that would be the last we heard about this, and this has turned out to be the case.
 

The Windsor Spitfires of the Western Hockey League ( aka The Dub) just got the book thrown at them.  They were fined $200,000 and lost their first five round picks for the 2013 draft and their first round pick for 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017.  See the article here.
 

For UND fans, this is especially intriguing since big-time defenseman Seth Jones had narrowed his choices to UND and the Everett Silvertips. The Silvertips owned his rights before they traded his them to Portland who were able to convince him to go there.  Many believe Jones told Everett he wasn't coming there, so they let Portland try to convince him to go the junior route.  Just to be straight, I'm not talking down about Seth Jones.  He's a tremendous player, has great character, and handled his decision the right way by not committing to a college and bailing out.  All I'm saying is UND fans have a reason to not like Portland and most aren't going to feel to bad about the sanctions.  Oh, and I'm a little bitter that they still get to use a certain "hostile and abusive" logo.



Catching up with Force forward Jordan Nelson

 

This week’s feature is on former Williston High School standout Jordan Nelson.  Nelson was the 2010 Mr. Hockey winner, an all-state selection, and led the Coyotes to a 3^rd place finish at the State Tournament.  He went on to play in the NAHL for the Alexandria Blizzard where he had 27 goals and 14 assists.  From there he was drafted in the 1^st round of the USHL draft by the Fargo Force.  He seems to be adjusting to the USHL very well in his second season, as he has 10 points already and is playing on the top line.  We caught up with Jordan to see how it’s going and to ask some of the questions our readers had for him.

 

Q:  What is your favorite restaurant in Fargo/Moorhead?

Nelson:  Noodles and Company by far.  I spend way too much money there!

 Q:  Who is your favorite NHL player?

Nelson:  Zach Parise.

 Q:  How would you describe your playing style?

Nelson:  I don't really know my playing style anymore, haha. It's changed but I'd have to say more of a power forward.

Q:  What is your typical daily schedule?
Nelson:  My daily schedule usually consists of getting up at 8, then a little skate for about 45 minutes from 8:30 to 9:15. Then we have workout from 9:30 to 11:00. After that I'll go grab a bite to eat at a buddy’s house or have a few guys from the team to come over and just hang out until we have practice at 3:00. After practice pretty much anything is open.  I'll just kinda hang out or try and find something to do.

 Q:  What are your playing goals/career goals?

Nelson:  My goals for this year are to get committed to a WCHA hockey team. It's always been one of my goals and this is my last shot at it so I'm trying to work extra hard to get there!

 Q:  What’s your favorite thing to do in your free time?

Nelson:  My favorite thing to do in my free time is either watching J-Shore on Thursday nights or just hanging out at someone’s house.

 Q:  Who was/were your role model(s) growing up?

Nelson:  My role model growing up was Tyler Jundt. He's already been through everything and knows how all the systems work so I've just tried to follow in his path and take some advice from him when I need it.

 Q:  Do you have any pre-game superstitions?

Nelson:  Every game day at around 11:30 (after pre game skate) I’ll go to noodles and company with some of the guys. Then I’ll go home and take my nap; usually about an hour and a half. Then I’ll wake up, make a peanut butter and jelly sandwich and head to the rink. Nothing too crazy.  Just during stretches and stuff like that I always have to be next to the same person I guess.

 Q:  What is on your pre-game playlist?

Nelson:  I don’t usually listen to music before a game.

 Q:  What’s your go-to goal celly (celebration)?

Nelson:  Haha I don't really have a "go to celly". I don't do anything crazy, just raise my hand I guess and celebrate with my teammates.

 Q:  What’s the best part about playing for the Force?

Nelson:  I would have to say the fan support. Last year we averaged around 3,700 a game and it’s always a great atmosphere to play in.

 Q:  Who is your favorite rival?

Nelson:  Lincoln.  It’s always a great battle between us every time we play.

 Q:  Who is your dentist?  BEST SMILE EVER! (from Darcy Schauer)

Nelson:  haha, Dr. Anderson.  Thanks Darcy!

 Q:  What are your strengths as a player?  What do you need to improve on?

Nelson:  My strengths would be that I'm a good scrapper down low for loose pucks and strong on the puck.  I need to make plays a little quicker and look for the open man. Also work on my shot some more.

 Q:  Are you looking at any specific colleges to play at?

Nelson:  Well any North Dakota kid’s dream is to play at UND and that’s still my dream so we will see what happens! Other than that, just anywhere in the WCHA.

 Q:  Why’d you want to play junior hockey (Insert Jack O’Callahan voice here)?  That one’s from Katie Schauer.

Nelson:  I wanted to play juniors to play college hockey haha and hopefully get a scholarship to go to school. (but mainly for the girls)… just kidding! Miracle quote haha.

 Q:  Anything you want to add (advice for our readers, shout-outs, etc.)?

Nelson:  Any advice?? hmm I'm not the best at this but never give up on your dreams of doing what you love because they can come true!

 

We want to thank Jordan for helping us out with our feature on him.  We’re looking forward to watching how the rest of the season unfolds for him and hopefully seeing him in a college sweater next season!

 

Recruiting:  The Women's Edition

 

I promised after I did the college recruiting feature for the boys that I would do one for the girls as well. It's taken me a little longer to put it together because I wanted to interview a Division 1 and a Division 3 coach. Several of the recruiting rules, timelines, and tendencies are different for each Division so I felt this would be the most helpful.

Our D1 coach is Shane Veenker from Bemidji State University. I played for him on various summer teams growing up and was fortunate to coach with him at the Minnesota Advanced 15's camp. Coach Veenker is a tremendous reference for our readers since he is not only the assistant coach, but handles the recruiting duties at BSU as well.

 Our D3 coach is Brett Bruininks from Concordia College. Coach Bruininks was my coach my senior year of college and taught me more about the game in that one year than the rest of my college years combined. He guided the Cobbers to their first National Tournament appearance last season in his second year with the program.

 

Our questions were submitted by various high school hockey players and their parents.

Q: If a player is interested in a certain school, should students contact the coaches themselves or wait until the coaches show interest?

Coach Veenker:  Get involved in the process.  The recruiting process started yesterday…everybody is behind.  Don’t wait, call coaches and at least let them know you’re interested.  Be persistent but not overbearing.  Let them know where they can see you play.

Coach Bruininks:  They have to contact themselves.  The reason for that is there are so many student-athletes out there.  It’s important to get on their radar if you are from a place without as much exposure.  A kid from North Dakota isn’t going to be seen as often as a kid from the Twin Cities, for example.  So let them know you are interested.

Q:  Can you lay out a timeline of when coaches start watching kids, become interested in and recruit them?

 Coach Veenker:   It starts all the way down to grade 9 where the first interest takes places.  It heats up after grade 10.  We work two classes at a time.  Right now we are finishing up our senior class, but already working diligently on the junior class.  After Soph year/heading into Junior year is usually the most important.  But you never know when you will get seen.  It can be when you are fifteen.  Primary decision making is done going into junior year, though.

Coach Bruininks:  We start identifying them as early as their sophomore year.  We start looking seriously at the end of their Junior year.  Most contact will be happening between the end of their junior year and into their senior year.  We can’t physically talk to them until they finish their junior year.  We can email as early as 9^th and 10^th grade, but most D3 coaches will wait until junior year.

 

Q:  How can a player promote or market herself if she’s not from a hockey hotbed?

Coach Veenker:  USA hockey camps are important so try to do those tryouts.  There are different showcases that certain coaches will be at.  Ask coaches which showcases and camps they are working and try to do those.  Might be expensive but hopefully it’s an investment.

Coach Bruininks:  Contact the coach. A lot of kids want to do the videos.  I'm not sure how effective spending money on a professional videos is.  Best way is to give them your stats, schedule, GPA, special awards and honors you’ve received.  I might request a video.  You don’t have to go through a big service, though.  You can make one on your own. 

 

Q:  What all do you look for in a recruiting video?  What should be included and how long should it be? 

Coach Veenker:  Under 5 minutes.  Team play, not just one individual through the whole shift.  Power Play and Penalty kill situations as well as 5 on 5.

Coach Bruininks:  Close to 10 minutes. Some game, some practice (skill stuff.)  Looking for skills (skating, moving the puck, handling the puck, shooting) as well as game footage.

 

Q:  When should a player make their first contact to a team they are interested in?

Coach Veenker:  Grade 10 they will want to visit some schools, let the coaches know they are interested so they have time to evaluate them.  Take unofficial visits through junior year.

Coach Bruininks:  The earlier the better.  Not just initial contact, but continued contact.  One contact isn’t going to do it at D3 as we could have sixty kids that want us to look at them.  Go to the school before you decide on the team itself.  Especially at D3, you want to know if you like the school first.  As far as timing, I’ve had kids contact me junior year which is nice, but the recruiting wont heat up until senior year.

 

Q:  Which tournaments and camps have the most exposure/get scouted the most?

Coach Veenker:  USA hockey camps/festivals, Team showcases (NAHA tournament, Stony Creek University showcases), NIT showcase in Plymouth.  For Minnesota and ND kids, any of the Final 54 tryouts, 15/16/17 tryouts.

 Coach Bruininks:  Any Team North Dakota/Wisconsin/Minnesota stuff.  Minnesota Junior Festival and Elite Festival.  Any USA hockey, 54’s USA hockey festival.  Shattuck St. Mary’s Tourney, Elite Tourney in Plymouth.  Also, the Minnesota and North Dakota State Tournaments.  Always let a coach know if you are in town for a game or tournament to see if they can stop by and watch you. 

 
Q:  Should players leave high school early (prep schools)?

Coach Veenker:  If they are very passionate about it and feel the need to go away they can, but there are so many other opportunities to showcase themselves in the off-season without having to go to a prep school.  The kid and parents need to make that decision as every individual is different.  Some need to play year round and some need time off.

Coach Bruininks:  That’s a tough one.  Depending on your goals and situations, you can’t blame them if it’s best for them.  But be realistic.  Watch D1 and D3 games to see where you are at. It also depends on family finances, maturity, and if the kid wants to do it.


Q:  Realistically, at what age/grade should a player assume she won’t be recruited to play D1 and start looking at D3 schools?

Coach Veenker: That’s a tough question; it’s all based on opportunity.  We had a situation last year that one of our players found out in April she couldn’t play because of a medical condition so we had to replace her.  Not sure if there is an exact date.  We need to press coaches to give students an honest answer so they aren’t drug around.  Get as much information as you can.  Ask where you are at on their recruiting list, their timelines, etc. 

Coach Bruininks:  Typically after Christmas of your senior year.  Don’t get me wrong, there are kids that are signed as late as March, but if you haven’t had any contact, you need to realistically start looking at the Division 3 route. Christmas is kind of the unwritten rule.  Most D1 teams are onto the junior class by that point.

 

Q:  Do you have any additional advice or questions you wish aspiring college hockey players would ask you?

Coach Veenker:  Be realistic.  Only about 3% of hockey players play at the Division 1 level.  Encourage to be realistic, but certainly strive for goals they want to achieve.  Be sure to call coaches that you are interested in playing for.  Get evaluated.  Get out there; play with and against great players.

 Coach Bruininks:  They should ask what the coach is looking for.  How many players the coach has coming in.  Pick the school at Division 3.  Make sure it has your wants/needs as a college.  If you are skilled enough to play, hockey will take care of itself.  Ask where you fit in, what kind of goals they would have for you.  Also, enjoy the process.  Don’t get caught up that your friends are signing early.  Enjoy it and make an informed decision.

 

Beyond the Pond wants to thank both Shane and Brett for their time and their advice for our readers. We hope this clears up some of your questions and guides you in the recruiting process.





Lockout Perks

 

ok, the lockout is a bummer and anybody who follows the NHL is getting a little stir-crazy right now. To try to take the high road, I've been racking my brain about the few advantages to the lockout.  As a Wild fan I originally thought we were one of the teams that got the worst of it.  We all want to see Parise and Suter on the ice in Wild jerseys and most of us are sick of waiting.  However, there are a few reasons the lockout may not be the end of the world for the Wild.

 

1) The Wild have one of the most anticipated prospects this season in Mikael Granlund.  Some are looking for him to be a Franchise savior (not as many now that Z-Par is here) and some think he will be one of the biggest busts since A.J. Thelen.  Chances are he will fall in the middle of that somewhere.  For all the naysayers that thought the smaller North American ice sheet was going to hurt Granlund, it appears he is adjusting quite well in the AHL.  He's finding his groove along with the rest of the Minnesota prospect pool and was just named AHL Rookie of the Month.  Granlund getting to adjust to the North American game while not being in the spotlight of the NHL may not be the worst thing for the Finnish superstar.

 

2) Granlund isn't the only player benefitting from extra time in the AHL.  The Wild are still one solid defenseman short of being a legitimate playoff team (Maybe more, but I like Suter, Gilbert, and Scandella as top four guys.)  While NHL veteran defensemen are not playing right now, Jonas Brodin is in Houston developing himself.  Brodin is projected to be a steady, Lidstrom-type defenseman.  The problem is he was still probably a year from being NHL ready.  Well at this rate, it looks like by the time the Parise/Suter led Wild team reveals itself to the fans of the State of Hockey Jonas Brodin will be NHL ready.  Can't complain about that!

 

3) The last perk to the lockout is one more top 10 draft pick.  I don't think Parise and Suter transform the Wild to a Stanley Cup contender as early as next season, but I do think it brings them up to a playoff team.  They were bound to be stuck in that middle spot that teams like Buffalo find themselves every year.  They aren't good enough to win it all but they aren't bad enough to get a top 10 draft pick.  Well, the Wild may have one more top 10 choice to stock the cupboards before entering the Parise/Suter era of Wild hockey!

 

All in all, the lockout is terrible and I'm as antsy as any hockey fan for it to get started.  But I will say I would be a lot more upset about it if I was a fan of an older team.  The veteran players that are nearing the end of their careers aren't going to get this year back.  That is the sad and painful realization.  Matt Cullen fits that mold, but the most anticipated Wild players are all young (in fact, most of the excitement revolves around the prospects like Granlund, Brodin, Coyle, Zucker, and Larsson to name a few.)  So until Bettman and Fehr figure this out, Go Aeros!